Analyst forecasts doubling in lighting LED supply in 3 years

October 14, 2013 // By Graham Prophet
A view on the pace of conversion to LEDs as a mass-market lighting source comes in a report from market researchers IHS, who see the global market for packaged leds for lighting nearly doubling in three years.

IHS' figures see a 96% increase in packaged LED revenue in the market from 2013 through 2016. Global revenue for packaged LEDs used in lighting applications is set to rise to $7.1 billion in 2016, up from $3.6 billion in 2013. The attached figure presents the IHS forecast of revenue for packaged LEDs in lighting. The definition used is that a packaged LED is an LED die with a protective covering with contacts that enable it to be directly soldered to an electrical circuit.

Says IHS' Stewart Shinkwin, market analyst, lighting and LEDs, “Shipments of LED lamps for [general] lighting are set to increase dramatically in the coming years, rising to 2.4 billion units in 2016, up from 520 million in 2013. The rapid expansion of the lighting market will come as a major boon to suppliers of packaged LEDs, which are seeking the next growth opportunity following the slowdown of the backlighting business.”

Rapid growth in the packaged LED market was previously driven by LCD display backlighting. The majority of these applications have completed their transition to LED technology. Therefore, while LED demand for these products remains stable, annual unit growth largely is limited to single-digit percentages.

The projected growth in LED lamps will result in intensified competition among suppliers vying to capture market share further driving down prices. IHS forecasts average selling prices for packaged LEDs in lighting to fall to $0.19 in 2018, down from $0.25 in 2016 and $0.41 in 2013. The price erosion, in turn, will reduce the consumer payback period for LEDs, helping to increase adoption. However, declining profit margins will be undesirable for suppliers, according to the report which is called “Packaged LEDs – World – 2013”

IHS Inc.;